The United States will be the largest oil producer in the world by 2023, the International Energy Agency said Monday.
Oil 2018, the intragovernmental organization’s five-year market analysis and forecast was released in Paris.
The IEA report predicts that oil production growth from the United States, Brazil, Canada and Norway can keep the world well supplied, more than meeting global oil demand growth through 2020.
Increases in U.S. production alone will cover 80 percent of the world’s demand growth in the next three years — with Canada, Brazil and Norway covering the rest, the report said.
The IEA, a bloc of 29 countries, advises its member states on industry trends, and the report’s release comes at the start of the global oil conference known as CERAWeek. Over 2,500 oil company executives and government leaders are expected to attend the event in Houston.
U.S. production of crude oil will reach a record of 12.1 million barrels a day by 2023, an increase from 2018 of about 2 million barrels per day. U.S. output is expected to surpass that of Russia, currently the world’s top producer at about 11 million barrels a day.
The surge in U.S. oil production could indicate less influence of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries — a group of 12 of the world’s largest largest oil exporters that wields considerable influence on global oil prices.
The IAE report projects supply reductions by OPEC and foresees a 2 percent decline by 2023, as modest gains in Iran and Iraq are offset by reductions in Venezuela. Global demand will increase nearly 7 million barrels per day by 2023 to 104.7 million barrels per day, the report said, with China the main proponent of growth in demand.
“The United States is set to put its stamp on global oil markets for the next five years,” said Fatih Birol, IEA executive director, “but as we’ve highlighted repeatedly, the weak global investment picture remains a source of concern. More investments will be needed to make up for declining oil fields.”