There’s high drama at the Capitol and heated rhetoric on the 24-hour cable news channels. And it is warranted, because the longer a government shutdown lasts, the more pain it could inflict.
But Ohio won’t hurt as badly as most other places, says a review of the federal government’s role in 50 states and the District of Columbia. That’s because Ohio relies less on the federal government for jobs, contracts and certain federal programs than most other states, says the review by WalletHub.
This may be of little consolation if you work for the federal government or are a federal contractor who needs approval or guidance right away. The Senate is debating a possible ending today, the first full business day of the shutdown, but there are no guarantees.
So far, Democrats have insisted that funding for the government include a deal on immigration — specifically, one addressing so-called DREAMers, or hundreds of thousands of children who came to the United States without authorization and risk deportation under President Donald Trump’s administration unless Congress acts by early March. Immigration is not typically a spending bill issue and Republicans say it doesn’t belong in this one. Democrats contend that if they don’t handle it this way, the children will lose Obama-era protections enabling them to stay.
In terms of how states are affected by the shutdown, Ohio ranks 47th overall when measured by key metrics for all 50 states and the District of Columbia, WalletHub says. Ranking first is the District of Columbia, followed by Maryland, Virginia, Alaska and Hawaii.
Behind Ohio are Delaware, Indiana, Michigan and, in last place, Minnesota.
The rankings gave more weight to certain categories such as share of federal jobs in the overall state workforce, contracting dollars as a share of a state’s economy and the share of each state’s child population in the Children’s Health Insurance Program, or CHIP. It gives less weight to such categories as access to national parks.
Here’s how Ohio ranks in each category:
- Federal jobs as a share of overall employment in the state: 38th.
The District of Columbia, Hawaii, Maryland, Virginia and Alaska rank at the top, in descending order, while Wisconsin has the lowest share of federal jobs and ranks last.
- Federal contract dollars per capita: 44th.
The District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia, New Mexico and Connecticut come in at 1 through 5, while Arkansas is last.
- Small Business Administration loan size measured as a share of small businesses that get these federal loans: 16th.
Wisconson, Utah, Idaho, Georgia and Washington have more small businesses affected by these loans, and West Virginia has the least.
- Real estate as a percentage of state gross product: 44th. This was measured because loan processing could be slowed by staffing shortages at the IRS, Federal Housing Administration and Department of Veteran Affairs.
Hawaii, Maryland, New Jersey, Florida and California are at the top, and the District of Columbia is last.
- Access to national parks: 45th. This factors in both the number of national parks per capita and the acreage of the national parks per capita.
Alaska, Wyoming, Montana, the District of Columbia and South Dakota take top rankings, and Delaware the last.
- Share of children under CHIP: 33rd. Califorrnia, Montana, Okalahoma, Arkansas and Rhode Island were top ranked, and Minnesota was last.
So how does this shake out politically?
States that voted for Donald Trump as president in 2016 aren’t as severely affected by the shutdown as states that voted for Hillary Clinton. On a scale of 1 to 100. the average ranking for a Trump state is 28.17, while the average for a Clinton state is 22.9 The smaller the number, the greater the impact. You can see the full methodology on WalletHub’s website.
Data for WalletHub’s analysis came from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, usaspending.gov (the federal government’s database on spending and contracts), Fit Small Business, National Association of Realtors, National Park Service and Kaiser Family Foundation.